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Political analyst expects tight race for Senate runoff

4 hours 31 minutes 3 seconds ago Friday, June 26 2026 Jun 26, 2026 June 26, 2026 5:33 PM June 26, 2026 in News
Source: WBRZ

BATON ROUGE — On Saturday, voters in Louisiana will decide who will represent the Republican and Democratic parties in the November general election. Ahead of Saturday, WBRZ spoke with political analyst James Hartman about the candidates and the seat currently held by Republican Bill Cassidy.

"There's a lot of polls showing this to be a very close race," Hartman said.

He added that the outcome on Saturday will be a reflection of which candidate was able to energize voters and get them out to the polls. Hartman noted that early voter turnout numbers for the June election saw fewer ballots cast than in the May election.

"It's going to be dismal, it's down six figures from early voting stats, along from the May election," Hartman said.

Early voting in May saw nearly 33,000 people make their way to the polls. In June, that number reached about 25,000.

As for the election itself, Hartman said most eyes will be on the Republican runoff, Congresswoman Julia Letlow facing off against State Treasurer John Fleming.

"I don't think anyone is going to run away with it. Most likely, I think Congresswoman Letlow is the likely winner, but stranger things have happened, especially with such a dramatic drop off in turnout," Hartman said.

Recent polling shows mixed results. A JMC Analytics poll commissioned for John Fleming showed Fleming leading by six points. A different poll by Quantus Insights showed Letlow leading 51.5 percent to Fleming's 48.5 percent on a firm two-way ballot.

In a statement to WBRZ, Rep. Letlow encouraged voters to look at her voting history, writing in part:

"We're in a very strong position, and everywhere I go I'm seeing tremendous enthusiasm from grassroots conservatives across Louisiana. I'm honored by the broad coalition we've built, and we're going to keep working until the polls close because every vote matters."

Hartman also said that the results could be dependent on which candidate could get the backing of Sen. Cassidy's supporters.

A statement from Fleming noted Cassidy's effect on voter turnout during the May election, reading in part:

"I believe I am better candidate for three important reasons. I have far more successful private sector and effective government experience than Letlow. My voting record is clearly and consistently more conservative than Letlow’s. And, I fully oppose the Carbon Sequestration scam and support the protection of property rights for our citizens."

On the Democratic ticket, former Tensas Parish Police Juror Jamie Davis and New Orleans businessman Gary Crockett appear. Both told WBRZ they are still campaigning and trying to get voters to the polls.

"As far as the results are concerned? Who knows? But I plan to fight until the end, I plan to stay out in the streets until 6 p.m. on Saturday," Crockett said. "People are really feeling the pinch. Down here in Louisiana, where minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour, it's hard to really make a living here in Louisiana. Those things have to be changed."

Both Crockett and Davis noted affordability as a key voter issue.

"I totally believe when you plant good seeds in good soil, when the time comes, you'll reap a good harvest. I think the people of Louisiana are good soil, and I believe the work we did on this campaign is planting good seeds," Davis said. "The cost of living is so high, I think that's a make-or-break issue."

Election day is June 27, 2026. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

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