Tropical Storm Bertha is now sitting just off the Louisiana coast with 50mph winds. The system has likely already reached its peak intensity, as a combination of northerly wind shear, dry air, and land interaction will continue to hamper Bertha. Most of the storms and heaviest rain are south of the center of circulation, giving Bertha a "lopsided" look.

The system should keep drifting west through Friday, skirting or hugging the northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. Tropical Storm Warnings extend from the Bay/Gulf County line over in Florida down to Louisiana's Terrebonne/St. Mary Parish line, which includes the New Orleans metro and Lake Pontchartrain. Beyond that, a Tropical Storm Watch stretches further west from Terrebonne Parish over to Cameron.

Outer rainbands started sweeping across south Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and will continue popping up intermittently through Thursday. Still, you can count on plenty of dry windows as Bertha glides past. The immediate coastline could pick up up to 2 inches of rain—with heavier pockets staying out over open water—while inland spots north of I-10 will see significantly less, generally under an inch. A few locations might even miss the rain entirely.

Coastal storm surge remains a key threat. As tide and surge stack up, usually dry shoreline zones could sit under 2 to 4 feet of water from the mouth of the Mississippi River out to the Mississippi/Alabama line. Nearby bodies of water, such as Lake Pontchartrain and surrounding stretches of the Louisiana coast, are looking at potential 1-to-3-foot rises. At the same time, swells pushing west are setting up dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along much of the northern Gulf through the next couple of days.

Winds overall won't be a major issue, though coastal communities could see occasional gusts hovering right around tropical storm force (39 mph). Inland areas will mostly just deal with light 10–20 mph breezes, outside of any stronger gusts brought down by passing heavy showers.

An EXTREME HEAT WARNING is set to take effect from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Wednesday for portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Dangerously hot conditions are possible with heat index values expected to reach up to 115°. That kind of heat and high humidity can cause heat illnesses. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, and stay out of the sun when possible. Those who do go outside should wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing and try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. 

Today & Tonight: Even with Bertha tracking nearer to the state on Wednesday, rain coverage might actually turn out lower than what was seen Tuesday thanks to the storm's "lopsided" nature. Even so, isolated showers and a few thunderstorms remain in the forecast. For the vast majority of the region, extreme heat will pose the main hazard. Heat indices could surge as high as 115° as afternoon highs reach the upper 90s alongside muggy, tropical moisture, marking some of the hottest feels-like values so far this season. Consequently, an EXTREME HEAT WARNING covers the entire Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Expect breezy conditions throughout the day, with wind gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph as Bertha makes its nearest approach. These conditions will linger through tonight, accompanied by ongoing chances for an isolated shower or storm and overnight lows dipping into the upper 70s.

Up Next: Periodic tropical downpours will continue through Thursday, especially south of I-10. Outside of these showers, intense heat and humidity will dominate. As the tropical system pulls away late in the week and into the weekend, the summer heat will continue to bake the Capital Area.

The Tropics: Elsewhere in the basin, all is quiet. No additional development is expected in the Gulf, Caribbean or Atlantic. 

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— The Storm Station Meteorologists

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