The summer heat isn’t giving up just yet, but there are some changes ahead in the forecast that signal September is around the corner. Late August also marks the beginning of the busiest stretch in hurricane season, and there is plenty to watch in the tropics. 

Rest of the Week: Tonight will bring gradual clearing and lows in the mid-70s. A wetter pattern will set in on Thursday. It will begin hot with early sunshine pushing highs back into the mid-90s. Ample tropical moisture will push feels-like temperatures past 100 degrees for a little while. However, that moisture will also work with an approaching front to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon. Some could bring downpours leading to isolated street flooding. Friday will continue the active weather with mostly cloudy skies and numerous showers and thunderstorms. Like Thursday, areas of poor drainage flooding could be briefly possible. Added clouds and rain coverage will keep highs closer to 90 degrees.

Up Next: By the weekend, that front will diminish and drift south, pushing the moisture support for showers and thunderstorms with it. That means lower rain chances for Baton Rouge on Saturday and especially Sunday, while coastal areas may still deal with pop-up showers. With drier air filtering in, humidity will take a slight dip, so while highs will reach the low to mid-90s, it won’t feel as oppressive.

Early next week, another front may sneak into the region. That front will have another push of dry air. Keep in mind that dry air warms and cools more efficiently, and so highs will hold in the low to mid-90s, but lower humidity will make it feel more tolerable, and mornings could even dip slightly below average in the low 70s and even upper 60s north of I-12.

The Tropics: Conditions are expected to worsen soon along the North Carolina Outer Banks as Hurricane Erin tracks northward remaining offshore of the East Coast. The storm, packing sustained winds near 110 mph, is forecast to strengthen again tonight and could briefly regain major hurricane status before beginning to weaken while racing into the North Atlantic later this week.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, where water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normally dry ground. A Tropical Storm Warning covers coastal areas from Beaufort Inlet, NC, to Chincoteague, VA, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas can expect strong winds, heavy rain, and flooding near the coast.

Even for those far from the center of the storm, Erin’s impacts may be felt. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are expected along much of the U.S. East Coast, as well as in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, later this week.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

Satellite-derived surface wind data from earlier today revealed that a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands lacks a closed surface circulation.  Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form.  By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.

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– Josh 

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